Monday, 11 May - Out of the ashes

Good morning, it’s Monday, 11 May. In your Squiz Today…

• One Nation wins big in Farrer

• The MV Hondius begins evacuating passengers after hantavirus cases

• and more fun times for fashionistas…

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Said Western Bulldogs midfielder Ed Richards about a motivational tactic used by coach Luke Beveridge for the team’s Friday night game against Port Adelaide. Look, whatever works - at least it wasn’t Trainwreck… or Clueless… or Mission: Impossible…

So Farrer, so good for One Nation

The Squiz

Saturday’s by-election in Farrer turned up a result for the record books, with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation winning its first directly elected federal lower house seat in its 30-year history. The party’s candidate David Farley took the seat with 57.4% of the 2-party preferred vote, with Independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe finishing second with 42.6%. Political analysts say it’s a win that confirms One Nation’s surge in polling is holding up at the ballot box - and Hanson says the party has plenty more seats in its sights…

Where might it head next?

According to former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce, who defected to One Nation 5 months ago, the party is coming after seats in Western Sydney next. So far, most of One Nation’s rise in support has come at the expense of the Coalition parties (more on that in a bit), but Joyce says it’s also planning to go after seats held by the Albanese Labor Government - and Western Sydney is where it could be vulnerable. At this stage, it won’t get the chance to do that for a while, unless another by-election happens or PM Anthony Albanese calls a federal election before the deadline of 2028. In the meantime, the focus will be on the upcoming state election in Victoria in November - and the party is polling pretty well there too… 

And things don’t look good for the Coalition?

No, they do not… Aside from One Nation’s rise, the other big story coming out of Farrer was the cratering of the Liberal Party vote, which was described as a “total destruction” by analysts. In Farrer’s entire 77-year history, it has only ever been held by either the Libs or Nats. But the Libs’ primary vote this time around was a quarter of what previous MP/former Coalition leader Sussan Ley achieved just 12 months ago - from 43.41% to 12% for new candidate Raissa Butkowski (and the Nats did worse, with around 10%). If these sorts of results keep happening, it’ll make it almost impossible for the Coalition to win government at the next election - unless they join forces with One Nation to do so. Asked about that yesterday, Coalition Treasury spokesman Tim Wilson didn’t rule out the idea… 

Here if you need...

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Waiting for a Starmer to fall

Australia isn’t the only country with an ascendant right-wing party, with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK having a great day in Scottish, Welsh and local English elections. The populist Reform picked up more than 1,450 council seats (that’s a lot) - creating speculation that Farage might be on a path to become PM. If that happens, he’d be the first in a century not from the 2 major parties, Labour and the Conservatives. As you might imagine, that’s put current UK Labour PM Keir Starmer under the pump - with one of his own MPs, Catherine West (who was born in Oz), saying she’ll challenge him for the leadership today if no one else does. And all this less than 2 years after Starmer won a landslide election - life comes at you fast…
*For a deeper dive into how Farage’s Reform UK party became a major political force in the UK, check out our Squiz Shortcut…  

Putin’s disputin’ himself

With everything going on in Iran and Lebanon over the last couple of months, the war in Ukraine has dropped out of the headlines a bit. Which is why Russian President Vladimir Putin raised a few eyebrows yesterday when he said he thinks it’s “coming to an end.” The war, which began with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, is the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II - and neither side is making much headway. So Putin’s comments have sparked some hope amongst those calling for peace - but other analysts are skeptical that they mean much. Especially as they came just hours after a speech where Putin said that “victory has always been and will be ours.” So, slightly mixed messages… 

Relief in Tenerife

Passengers stuck on the hantavirus-hit cruise ship MV Hondius have begun heading home overnight, after Spanish authorities allowed it to dock in the Canary Islands. As a reminder, there were around 140 passengers on the ship, which has been sailing around looking for a place to dock since the hantavirus cases - including 3 deaths - were first reported earlier this month. There are 5 Aussies and one Kiwi on board, none of whom are showing symptoms - they’re expected to head home early tomorrow morning where they’ll be assessed. While this strain of the hantavirus - known as the Andes virus - can be transmitted between humans, the World Health Organisation says the risk to the public is very low - Director-General Tedros Ghebreyesus says “This is not another COVID.”

A football finish line approaches

For the first time in its history, the Wellington Phoenix will be playing off in the women’s A-League Grand Final this weekend. It’s the first time a Kiwi club has made the decider in either the men’s or women’s competitions - after defeating the Brisbane Roar yesterday, the yellow and black will be taking on Melbourne City at AAMI Park on Saturday (you can get tix here). That’ll be followed by the men’s GF the following weekend, with Adelaide United, Newcastle Jets, Auckland FC and Sydney FC still in the mix. Add in a potentially exciting finish to the English Premier League that same weekend, and then the men’s FIFA World Cup kicking off in a month, and it’s a beautiful time for the beautiful game… 

Some bonza haute couture, mate

May is proving a banner month for fashion, with the Australian Fashion Week kicking off today in Sydney. Hot off the Louboutin heels of The Devil Wears Prada 2 and the Met Gala, this year’s event has changed its main location from Carriageworks to the Museum of Contemporary Art (museums and fashion - very hot right now). Aussie fashion designer Carla Zampatti will kick things off, and brands like Beare Park, Bianca Spender and Nicol & Ford all have shows in the works. Plenty of those shows will be live-streamed, so here are the official website and the official Instagram if you’d like to follow along with all the looks… 

Apropos of Nothing

Here’s a sneak peek at Eclipse, Aussie Delta Goodrem’s entry at this year’s Eurovision Song Contest, which kicks off this week. It’s the 70th edition, and Goodrem is hoping to go one better than Dami Im’s second place in 2016 - eclipse it, you could say… 

If you’re feeling unlucky in love, take solace from the story of Lloyd the turkey, who has gone viral for his unusual approach to love. Despite previously trying to, uh, romance a basketball (no, really), a singles ad has done the trick - he now has some mates that aren’t sporting equipment…  

This year’s men’s FIFA World Cup is taking place in 3 countries - the US, Canada and Mexico - and so it’s also going to have 3 opening ceremonies. J Balvin and Tyla will headline the Mexican edition, Katy Perry/Future in the US, and Michael Buble/Alanis Morissette in Canada. Thrice as nice… 

Squiz the Day

9.30am (AEST) - A judgment is expected in a case between corporate regulator the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and Oz billionaire Clive Palmer over fraud charges - Federal Court of Australia, Melbourne

11.00am (AEST) - The Real Review will announce its Top Wineries of Australia

11.00am (AEST) - The Australian Football League will launch this year’s Doug Nicholls Round, which celebrates Indigenous players and culture - Melbourne

12.00pm (AEST) - A bail application hearing in the Melbourne Magistrates Court for 2 members of the group commonly known as the ISIS brides, who have been charged with slavery offences - Melbourne  

6.00pm (AEST) - Opening of an exhibition to mark 125 years of the Parliamentary Press Gallery - Old Parliament House, Canberra

National Road Safety Week (until 18 May) 

Start of Food Allergy Awareness Week (until 17 May)

Australian Fashion Week begins (until 15 May)

Anniversary of:

• William Lawson, Gregory Blaxland and William Wentworth embarking on their expedition westward of Sydney (1813)

• the birthday of Salvador Dali (1904)

• the premiere of Andrew Lloyd Webber’s Cats (1980)

• the Mount Everest disaster, when 8 climbers were caught in a blizzard and died (1996)