Thursday, 30 January 2025 - Drop it like it's hot

Good morning, it’s Thursday, 30 January. In your Squiz Today…

• Inflation is heading south, stoking mortgage holders’ hopes for a rate cut

• Missing Aussie, Oscar Jenkins, could be alive in Russia

• And some Lunar New Year traditions to try out…

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Squiz the Weather

Squiz Sayings

Said Aussie cricket legend Ricky Ponting after the men’s team dropped Boxing Day superstar Sam Konstas for its first Test match against Sri Lanka in Galle. But it worked out well - both Usman Khawaja and Steve Smith scored tons as Australia dominated in a “perfect” Day One...

Aussie inflation has dropped again

The Squiz

Mortgage holders are taking heart after numbers released by the Bureau of Stats yesterday had the headline inflation rate for October to December at 2.4% - its lowest level since early 2021, when the COVID pandemic was in full swing. The underlying inflation rate - aka the trimmed mean, which cuts out any temporary or outlying data - was 3.2%, which is lower than the Reserve Bank's forecast of 3.4%. As for what's up and down, steep price rises hit tobacco, games/toys and eggs, while we're shelling out around 3% less for fruit and veggies...

What’s the reaction been?

Treasurer Jim Chalmers was a happy camper - he said while it's not yet "mission accomplished" in the inflation battle, the worst of it was "well and truly behind us". He pointed out that Australia's inflation was now "lower than most major advanced economies" - that's places like the US and the UK. Coalition treasury spokesperson Angus Taylor wasn't as bullish - he said Aussies are still struggling with the cost of living, and today's numbers didn't change that fact. Experts say the inflation stats are politically crucial because they will influence the upcoming decision of the Reserve Bank - set for 17-18 February - about whether or not to cut interest rates. If it does, homeowners will see a drop in their mortgage repayments, which analysts say will benefit the government as it heads into an election. 

Remind me how it affects interest rates?

As we’ve mentioned a lot recently, underlying inflation is a number the Reserve Bank says it watches closely when deciding to cut interest rates. It wants it tracking down sustainably and landing between 2-3% before it does - while it’s not quite there yet, some economists say it’s clearly on its way, so now's the time to get snipping. But it's not the only number the Reserve Bank looks at when making its decision. Experts say it also keeps a close eye on the rate of unemployment and the strength of the Aussie dollar, which has been at a low point of late. But if you ask investors, they seem pretty confident a February rate cut is in the works - on a day when the ASX200, which tracks the 200 biggest listed companies in the country, got close to its all-time high - they upped the probability to 95%, up from 73% a fortnight ago.

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Squiz the Rest

A big update on a missing Aussie

Oscar Jenkins - the Melbourne man believed to be dead after being captured by Russian forces in Ukraine - is back in the headlines, with PM Anthony Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong saying they’ve now been told he’s alive. To recap - we learned about 32yo Jenkins in December when a video of him being interrogated by Russian soldiers began doing the rounds online. Then came reports this month that he’d been killed… The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) wasn’t able to confirm either way, despite making urgent calls to Moscow about his fate. But yesterday, Russia's Ambassador to Australia said Jenkins is alive and being held by Russian forces on Russian territory. But without evidence, Albanese is being cautious - he says DFAT is asking for more information.

A dangerous roadside discovery

NSW Police say they’ve prevented a potential “mass casualty” antisemitic attack when they discovered explosives inside a caravan in Sydney's north-west, along with a note containing the address of a synagogue. The owner of the caravan has been arrested but not charged, after the explosives - named as Powergel which reports say likely came from a mine site - were found on 19 January in Dural. The amount of the substance found could create a blast zone of 40 metres, authorities said. Last night, Premier Chris Minns defended not telling the public for 10 days, saying a major investigation by the Joint Counter Terrorism Team was underway. "This would strike terror into the community, particularly the Jewish community", he said. "Hate and extremism have no place in Australian society."

Shaking on a mega chemist deal

Pharmacy retailers Chemist Warehouse and Sigma Healthcare have officially joined forces in what's said to be a $30 billion merger (paywall). If you're not familiar with the companies, they're huge in their own rights - Chemist Warehouse has more than 500 stores across Oz, and Sigma Healthcare supplies other pharmacy chains like Amcal and Guardian. In December 2023, Sigma announced its proposal to buy Chemist Warehouse Group and list the new mega-company on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX). But given the size of the deal, and pharmacy retailer regulations, it needed approval from the Australian Consumer and Competition Commission first. That happened last year - despite pushback from the Pharmacy Guild of Australia - and last night, Sigma shareholders voted in favour of the merger at a pub in Melbourne’s north. All the easier for toasts…

A good type of delay

Aussie researchers have shared “internationally significant” results from a recent trial aimed at improving cognition in older adults… More than 6,000 people aged 55-77yo were involved in the ‘Maintain Your Brain’ study in NSW. You can read up on it here, but participants were encouraged to eat a plant-based Mediterranean diet, take up strength training, and undertake regular brain training/mental health activities. Half received online coaching, while the others were pointed to publicly available information. The good news? Both groups recorded improvement, with study author Henry Brodaty saying the results show the potential to delay dementia by up to a year. Hooray for science…

Slithering into the Year of the Snake

Aside from the cultural festivities, the Lunar New Year is a big deal for the Chinese economy - the government has been encouraging travellers to spend up big at local businesses, and cinemas in particular have said thank you very much... A new blockbuster film called Legends of the Condor Heroes: The Gallants (what a title…) has set a Lunar New Year record for ticket sales. The holiday has also given the world a tradition called the “prosperity toss”, originating in either Malaysia or Singapore. If you've never had the pleasure, it involves using chopsticks to toss raw fish salad ingredients as high in the air as you can, all while shouting "Happy New Year" and "Prosperity". If you're heading to any celebrations this week, see if you can get involved in one of those - it sounds like a hoot…

Apropos of Nothing

We mentioned yesterday that the Mona Lisa was set to be housed in its own special room as the Louvre Museum in Paris gets upgraded - well, not if the Italians have their way. They’d like to have her back in Milan, thanks very much, reuniting with another famous Da Vinci work, The Last Supper…

There’s camera-shy, and then there’s the Mount Lyell shrew, the only species of mammal in California to have never been photographed. But some enterprising Californians have finally managed to get the shot after a 3-day adventure in the Sierra Nevada mountains…

There were some raised eyebrows at a Louisiana aquarium after the birth of a baby swell shark - because the only adult sharks at the aquarium are female. Theories range from delayed fertilisation to asexual reproduction, but as Jeff Goldblum taught us, life, uh, finds a way…

Squiz the Day

10.00am (AWST) - Pre-trial hearings are set to begin for 4 people charged with the murder of 15yo Indigenous boy Cassius Turvey as he walked home from school - Perth

10.30am (AEDT) - Cricket: Australia A v England Lions (until 2 Feb) - Sydney, and keep up with the score here 

11.00am (AEDT) - World Rugby will announce which Aussie cities will host the Men’s Rugby World Cup in 2027 - Sydney

2.30pm (AEDT) - Women's Cricket: Ashes test match - Australia vs England (until 2 Feb) - Melbourne, and broadcast live on Kayo

🥐 World Croissant Day

Birthdays for Christian Bale (1974) and Olivia Colman (1974)

Anniversary of:

• the assassination of Mahatma Gandhi (1948)

• the birth of the Ashes legend after the defeated English cricket team is presented with the ashes of a wooden bail (1883)

• The Beatles performing their last live gig on a London rooftop (1969)

• the WHO declaring COVID-19 as a public health emergency (but not yet a pandemic…) (2020)