Tuesday, 18 February - Rumour has it

Good morning, it’s Tuesday, 18 February. In your Squiz Today…

• Ukraine peace talks are ramping up

• A rates decision is incoming

• And the big BAFTA winners…

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Squiz the Weather

Squiz Sayings

Said actor Ryan Reynolds after being asked how he was going during the Saturday Night Live 50th anniversary special yesterday. He and wife Blake Lively - also in attendance - are in the middle of a very public legal battle, so his tongue-in-cheek response got a big laugh from the audience…

A shaky path to peace

The Squiz

Talks are stepping up between the US and Russia to bring the war in Ukraine to an end - and after Ukrainian officials said they’d been left out of the conversation, US President Donald Trump has reassured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky he’ll have a seat at the table when the peace process becomes official. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio backed that up, saying a meeting between the US and Russia in Saudi Arabia tonight is aimed at seeing how serious Russia is on the subject, and that ending the war was not “a one-meeting thing”. 

Who else is involved in these talks?

Just the US and Russia at this stage, with Saudi Arabia as hosts and mediators, though Zelensky is close by - he arrived in the neighbouring United Arab Emirates yesterday. Ukraine isn’t the only country worried about being shut out of negotiations - some European leaders are also nervous about not getting an invite. French President Emmanuel Macron responded by hosting an emergency summit last night with leaders from the UK, Germany and NATO, where they discussed Europe’s ongoing support for Ukraine. On the agenda was more money for defence, and UK PM Keir Starmer said he’s prepared to send troops to maintain Ukraine’s security, saying peace there is “essential to deter Putin from further aggression in the future.”

Why are those leaders so worried?

They're concerned that any peace deal without their involvement will overly favour Russia. Ukraine is hoping to reclaim Russian-occupied land, but after Trump’s chat with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday, he said that was “unlikely”. For his part, Zelensky has said Ukraine will not accept any deal made without its involvement… And while we’re on the war in Ukraine, new video footage has been posted online of Australian Oscar Jenkins, who went missing after fighting with Ukrainian forces in December, showing him alive but held captive by the Russian military. The federal government is trying to verify the video, so expect to hear more on that today...

Squiz the Rest

Another city falls

The crisis in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is worsening, with Rwandan-backed rebels taking control of another city - Bukavu - in the country’s east. You can read up here, but it’s to do with the DRC’s mineral-rich land making it a hotbed for conflict. Last month, the rebel group M23 shocked world leaders when it claimed the eastern DRC city of Goma, and now, the fighters have moved to their next target… The Congolese government has told Bukavu residents to stay inside “to avoid being targeted by the occupying forces”. The escalation has experts worried - with many calling on Rwanda to cut off the rebels. Rwandan President Paul Kagame says a ceasefire is needed but hasn’t withdrawn support for M23…

*If you want to learn more about what’s happening in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, this Squiz Shortcut will get you across it. 

A Hillcrest verdict is on the way

A court case looking into whether the deaths of 6 Tassie primary school students was a criminal act is nearing its end, with closing submissions wrapping up yesterday. If you’re unfamiliar with the case, the students died - and 3 others were seriously injured - when freak winds threw an inflatable jumping castle across the Hillcrest Primary School oval in December 2021. WorkSafe Tasmania later charged Rosemary Gamble, the operator of the jumping castle, with a workplace health and safety offence - but she pleaded not guilty. Prosecutors claim that the castle wasn’t pegged down correctly, while Gamble’s defence team have pointed the finger at a supplier. The magistrate will hand down a decision on 6 June.

It’s a big day for interest rate watchers…

…because the Reserve Bank is due to make its latest cash rate decision around 2.30pm. Economists from all 4 of our major banks are expecting a cut to the 4.35% cash rate - and the hot tip is a snip of 0.25 percentage points. If that happens, it's up to individual banks whether or not to change their interest rates for consumers - but it would be a sign that our long inflation battle is easing. It’d also be the first time we’ve seen a rate cut in more than 2 years. But some economists have warned that low unemployment stats and the potential US tariffs could also delay rate cuts - so, as always, it's a waiting game…

A glimmer of hope for Star

Executives at Star Entertainment Group - the operator of casinos in Queensland and NSW - are said to be considering a $650 million debt refinancing offer as they navigate the company’s financial woes. That would be a big lifeline for Star, which last month said it was running out of cash… In an update to the Aussie stock market yesterday, Star said it had received an offer from the US-based Oaktree Capital Management to lend it the money. But while that money could go a long way, it wouldn’t be risk-free… Reports say Oaktree has a reputation for negotiating hard on its investment deals - and Star says its board has a lot to consider before signing on the dotted line. 

Lots of pros for Conclave 

The papal drama took out Best Film at the BAFTAs, which is the last major awards ceremony before the Oscars in early March. Another big winner was architecture epic The Brutalist, which picked up 4 awards including Best Director. Former Doctor Who star David Tennant hosted and opened the show with a version of The Proclaimers’ I’m Gonna Be - you can check out his musical stylings here, and some of the red carpet style here… If you’re planning an Oscars party, experts have settled on some frontrunners now the preliminary awards are done - most are picking Demi Moore for Best Actress, Adrien Brody for Best Actor, and Anora for Best Picture. But as Chris Rock found out a few years ago, anything can happen on Oscar night…

Apropos of Nothing - Gnarly sports edition

It was a celebration of all things gnarly in Canberra this weekend with the 24th edition of the Belco Bowl Jam, our longest-running skateboarding event. It attracts everyone from rank amateurs to Olympic gold medallists to come along and perform their coolest tricks.

The new NBA All-Star format - where the best basketballers in the world needed only 40 points for a win - wasn’t a slam-dunk with fans who said it didn’t amount to much game time given the talent on the court. It’s tough when the half-time entertainment lasts longer than the main event…

Getting more bang for their puck were fans at this ice hockey match between the US and Canada, which came with a side of biffo - we’re talking 3 fights in the first 9 seconds. Once the niceties were out of the way, the US prevailed 3-1. No official decision on the fights…

Squiz the Day

2.30pm (AEDT) - The Reserve Bank's latest interest rate decision will be revealed, followed by a press conference by Governor Michele Bullock - Sydney 

Company half-year results for BHP, Challenger, Dexus, Mineral Resources, and SEEK

ABS data release, livestock products, December

Billie Eilish's Hit Me Hard and Soft tour kicks off its Australian leg - Brisbane

👍 to Thumb Appreciation Day

Raise a glass if you’re so inclined to National Drink Wine Day

And for fans of the demoted planet (Alice, we’re looking at you), it’s Pluto Day

Birthdays for Yoko Ono (1933), John Travolta (1954), Dr Dre (1965) and Molly Ringwald (1968)

Anniversary of:

• Mark Twain publishing The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn in the US (1885)

• the first Church of Scientology being established in Los Angeles (1954)

• the last person being legally executed in New Zealand (1957)