Who’s going to lead New Zealand?

Who’s going to lead New Zealand?

Across the ditch in New Zealand, voting is already underway for the country’s next election, which is set for 7 November. And it could be a close one - New Zealand’s public broadcaster says it’s the most unpredictable election since it changed its voting system in 1996. So in this Squiz Shortcut, we’ll take a look at:

• How New Zealand’s elections work compared with ours

• Who’s in the running

• And what it all means for Australia.

🙋🏻‍♀️ This newsletter was written by Andrew Williams

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Squiz the Shortcut

Democracy sausage time in New Zealand?
Given that voting in NZ isn’t compulsory, our research has found that democracy sausages aren’t really a thing over there. Correct us Kiwi Squizers if we’ve got that wrong… 

Their loss… How else do our systems differ?
Another difference is in the way that we vote. To explain that, we need to unpack an acronym - MMP.

What’s MMP? 
It stands for Mixed Member Proportional. It’s the system NZ picked up in 1996. The mixed bit refers to the fact that the country has 2 kinds of MPs and they use 2 separate votes to pick them…

How does it work?
Vote number one is for your local MP. People in a local area gather at polling places, vote for a candidate, and the candidate with the most votes wins. It’s a little different in that we have a preferential system, whereas in NZ, the most votes wins - but the idea is the same. From there, it gets a bit more complicated… 

How so?
It involves that second vote we mentioned. That’s when you pick a particular party, rather than a person. Basically, the party vote determines each party’s share of seats, and the local votes decide who fills some of them. Then there’s an extra pool of seats added to each party’s local wins to make sure their representation lines up with the national party vote - that’s the second kind of MP. Phew…

So how does a party get those extra seats?
That’s where a very important number comes in - 5%. A party needs 5% of the national vote to get those top-up seats, unless it wins at least one local seat. If it does, it gets its share of top-up seats even with less than 5%. That will be particularly important this year, as we’ll get to later…

Righto… Any other differences?
Yep… New Zealand is unicameral, meaning it has one house of parliament. It doesn’t have a senate like us. Usually, no party gets enough votes to govern alone. That means NZ governments are often made up of 2 or more parties, called coalitions - which, aside from our formal Liberal-National coalition here, is pretty unusual in Australia.

How does non-compulsory voting play into things?
Getting people to turn out to vote is a much bigger deal in New Zealand than it is here. Maybe they should try selling democracy sausages at polling places… But the number of people who can vote is much wider - even Australian citizens who have lived in NZ for over a year can vote in the election. It’s very unusual on that front…

Ok so that’s the basics covered… Give me the goss on this election? 
The 2026 election is a rematch between the 2 major players on the NZ political scene. For the second time in a row, it’s Chris v Chris… 

Let’s start with Chris number one…
That’s Christopher Luxon, the current New Zealand PM. He leads the National Party, which is the country’s main conservative party. The Liberal Party here in Australia is probably the closest equivalent. 

How has his time in office gone? 
This has been his first term, and it has not, by historical standards, gone very well. He’s been described in some of the reports we’ve seen as the least popular first-term PM in a long time… He’s already survived 2 confidence votes over his leadership, which has opened the door for his main opponent. 

And that’s Chris number 2? 
Yep, that’s Labour leader Chris Hipkins. Again, this is similar to our Labor Party here in Australia - it’s the main centre-left party in the country. They’re spelled differently, though - watch out for that u… 

Tell me more about Chris Hipkins… 
He’s been the PM before, so his name might be familiar. He took over from Jacinda Ardern in early 2023, and then lost the election to Luxon later that year. His main argument for changing the government is the cost of living, whereas Luxon, who’s a former boss of Air New Zealand, says he’s better placed to manage the economy…

Could either party win outright? 
Even if either party wins a bigger share of the vote, they’re going to need some help from other parties. The National Party will likely need help from their current Coalition partners. They’re NZ First, a populist right-wing party, and ACT, a libertarian party. Because of that party-first system, the National Party will be hoping that NZ First and ACT also do well…

And on the Labour side?
It’ll need support from the Greens (you can probably guess what Australian party it’s closest to), and Te Pāti Māori, which is the Māori party. It has Indigenous rights as its key issue.

What are the polls saying?
Well, we said it was unpredictable - not even the polls can agree on who might be in the lead… One had National up 4 points, and another had Labour in the lead. If we broaden it out a bit to the blocs on the left and right, it’s close again - 49% for the right bloc, 45% for the left. And that missing 6%? That’s where a party called Opportunity comes in…

Who are they?
It’s a centrist party led by Qiulae Wong, and it has never made it into parliament before. But it’s polling around that all-important 5% this time, which means it could end up holding the balance of power - a bit like the 3 crossbenchers who decided whether Julia Gillard or Tony Abbott would be PM here in 2010. Luxon has ruled out working with them, so if Opportunity does get in, things could get tricky for him…

Let’s bring it back to why this matters for us here in Australia…
First of all, there’s a direct link in that some of the people who are deciding the election live here because you don’t need to live in NZ to vote. Well over 100,000 Kiwis living overseas are registered to vote in the election, and of those, nearly two-thirds are here in Oz. That’s a bit over 3% of voters - and in an election this close, it could be a deciding factor.

What else? 
The New Zealand banking system is heavily influenced by Aussie banks. The Labour Party is promising to make it easier for new banks to enter the New Zealand market - that could mean more competition for the big banks here in Australia (because NZ’s 4 big banks are owned by Australia’s big 4 banks, so new players could impact their bottom line).

But we’re on pretty good terms with our Kiwi neighbours, right?
Yep… Besides a few flare-ups over immigration, we largely get on well. There are some interesting parallels for Aussie politics - and a lot of Aussies and Kiwis living here will be keeping a close eye on the result. Election Day is on 7 November, but given how close the race is and the coalition negotiations that might need to happen, it could be a while before we find out the result.

Onto our Recommendations

Perusing: RNZ’s Election Policy Guide for the 2026 New Zealand election, which groups each party’s policies by issue so you can keep track of who’s promising what. 

Reading: This ABC article on why the Australian Labor Party doesn’t have a u in the spelling, which is more long-winded than you might expect.

Happy Halloweekend

Halloween doesn’t have to mean door-knocking on your unsuspecting neighbours because there are 2 spooky nights planned in Sydney to give you an alternative. Think fancy dinners but with roaming zombies and a tarot reader, plus a Day of the Dead party with DJs, live Latin music and a free salsa lesson (plus happy hour from 5pm, which might help with that salsa dancing…). Find out more here.

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