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Sunday Note 1 November
Welcome to the second edition of the Sunday Note - our weekly look at some of the news events we think are worth clocking. Thanks for all your lovely feedback on the first edition - our goal for this newsletter is to help you prepare for the week ahead, and this is a big one. As you’re about to see, I didn’t have to look especially hard for events that might make headlines this week - as cricket commentator Bill Lawry used to say, it’s all happening…
5 things to clock this week…
Rising Fast
1. The RBA’s interest rate call
After inflation rose a bit more than expected last week, the various analysts we track on this sort of thing - banks, markets, economists - heavily tilted towards this week’s decision being a rise. That would make it the fifth interest rate rise this year, and would take the cash rate to the highest level it’s been since 2008. To put that in an historical perspective, that’s the same year as the Beijing Summer Olympics, Barack Obama’s first presidential election, and Corey Worthington’s infamous house party…
Key thing to know: PM Anthony Albanese looks to be trying to get out ahead of a possible rate rise - in an interview published yesterday, he described it as a “blunt instrument” for curbing inflation, and one that hurts people with mortgages. He’s pointed to the war in Iran as the reason inflation is rising, but the Coalition argues government spending is responsible. Expect that debate to rage not only on Tuesday, but all week.
Key event this week - Tuesday, 3 November: It’s a hectic news afternoon - the Reserve Bank will announce its decision at 2.30pm AEDT, the Melbourne Cup runs at 3pm, and then RBA Governor Michele Bullock will give her press conference at 3.30pm. Lots to keep track of…
Statesman
2. The US midterm elections
The US heads to the polls on Tuesday night, our time, to elect members of Congress, with control of both the House and Senate up for grabs. US President Donald Trump’s Republican Party currently controls both houses, but Democrats have a real chance to flip them both - and if they do, they’ll have a lot more power to push back against Trump’s agenda. We have a Shortcut to break it down for you.
Key thing to know: The midterm elections almost always favour the party that isn’t in the White House, and with Trump’s approval ratings at or near the lowest level of his presidency, that seems likely this year. Despite his unpopularity, Trump has refused to stay out of the spotlight during the campaigns - sometimes to the candidates’ chagrin…
Key event this week - Wednesday, 4 November: That’s when voting winds up, and we’ll get an idea of the result - and whether those pesky polls have missed the mark again. Although Trump has consistently outperformed his polling when his name has been on the ballot, that hasn’t been the case in the midterms. As some pollsters have pointed out, the last time he faced midterms as president (in 2018), polls were pretty much bang on the money.
Even Stevens
3. New Zealand votes
Our neighbours across the Tasman are also heading to the polls on Saturday for the country’s first election since 2023. And once again, the battle for PM comes down to Chris v Chris - current National Party PM Christopher Luxon on the centre-right, or Labour leader and former PM Chris Hipkins on the centre-left.
Key thing to know: It’s close - real close. Something to watch for this year is the Opportunity Party - a centrist party that may essentially become kingmaker (aka be able to pick the winner) if it gets 5% of the vote. That could win it enough seats in the NZ Parliament to decide who forms government. Luxon has ruled out working with Opportunity, and analysts reckon it’s ideologically closer to Labour than National, so if the party does succeed, it’ll work in Hipkins’ favour - and possibly make Luxon a one-term PM.
Key event this week - Saturday, 7 November: That’s election day, and polls close at 5pm AEDT. Given the tightness of the race and the complexity of New Zealand’s election Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) voting system, it could take days, maybe weeks, to work out who’s in the running to form government - so almost as long as it took me to figure out how MMP works…
Half Yours
4. Coles holds an AGM
The supermarket giant had what might be charitably described as a rough week last week - billions of dollars were wiped off its market value on Friday after some less-than-stellar sales results and profit forecasts. That will make this week’s Annual General Meeting an interesting one.
Key thing to know: Coles said the shaky quarterly results were because of tougher competition, bargain-hunting shoppers and high fuel costs. It’s also waiting on the Federal Court to hand down its decision on penalties after the company was found in May to have misled customers on product discounts. That penalty decision won’t be until next year, but it could be in the hundreds of millions of dollars.
Key event this week - Friday, 6 November: Amid all of that, the supermarket’s top brass will face shareholders over the decisions made so far and how it’s going to turn things around. It’ll all go down, down at 9.30am AEDT at the Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre.
Catalogue
5. The National Songbook
The National Film and Sound Archive and the Australasian Performing Right Association (APRA) will induct the first songs into a new National Songbook, which will act as a sort of Hall of Fame for great local songs that have “helped shape Australia’s cultural identity”.
Key thing to know: The songs will be picked by industry experts (not by public vote) and they have to be written or co-written by an Australian member of APRA, and released at least 10 years ago. So, bad luck, Dance Monkey… It’s not just singles that are eligible, either - soundtracks and music composed for the screen can also get a guernsey.
Key event this week - Wednesday, 4 November: That’s when the first 10 songs will be inducted to kick off Ausmusic Month. So if an office Melbourne Cup sweep isn’t your thing, maybe wait a day and play an Aussie music sweep - get everyone to pick the 10 songs they think will be on the list and see who gets closest. And yes, that is my idea of fun.
Pop Culture Pointers
Watching: Wild Horse Nine is the latest black comedy-thriller from Martin McDonagh, the director behind Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Banshees of Inisherin. His movies tend to get a lot of Oscar buzz, and this one is no different. It follows 2 CIA agents (played by Sam Rockwell and John Malkovich) during an operation on Easter Island in the lead-up to the 1973 Chilean coup. Malkovich in particular is being talked about as a contender for Best Actor, so if you’d like to see what the fuss is about, it’s out in cinemas on Thursday, 5 November.
Playing: There are plenty of contenders for the best video game ever made - Tetris on the Game Boy, The Last of Us on the PS3, Snake on the Nokia 6110 - but any decent list has to include 1998 classic The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time. The action-adventure game about a silent protagonist on a time-travelling mission to stop an evil force taught a generation of ’90s kids what an ocarina is (it’s a musical instrument). 28 years later, it’s getting a full-scale remake with completely revamped graphics, controls and music, and it’s released in Australia this Thursday on the Nintendo Switch 2.
For your calendar…
Monday, 2 November
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy board meeting begins (until 3 November)
NSW gun buyback begins
Westpac will release its full-year financial results
SACE exams begin for Year 12s in South Australia, and NTCET exams begin for Year 12s in the Northern Territory
CFDA Fashion Awards
UEFA deadline for FIFA to release key documents and answer all questions relating to its governance and decision-making
ABS data release: building approvals, September 2026
Tuesday, 3 November
10.00am - Resumption of hearings in the inquest into the Hillcrest Primary School jumping castle tragedy in which 6 children died - Devonport
10.30am - Third public hearing in the inquiry into artificial intelligence and data centres - Darwin
2.30pm - RBA releases statement on monetary policy, followed by a media conference
3.00pm - Racing: Melbourne Cup at Flemington Racecourse - Melbourne
8.00pm - Cut-off for Victorians to enrol to vote ahead of the state election
Public holiday in Victoria for Cup Day
US midterm elections
Writ issued for Victorian state election
Wednesday, 4 November
8.00am - Sexual Assault Services Victoria’s International Freedom from Sexual Violence summit begins (until 6 November) - Melbourne
9.00am - The inaugural National Songbook, recognising the songs that have helped shape Australia’s cultural identity, will be announced - Canberra
12.30pm - Former Labor minister Peter Garrett and former Chief of the Australian Defence Force Admiral Chris Barrie, both commissioners in the inquiry into AUKUS, will address the National Press Club - Canberra, watch on ABC iview
Report due from the grassroots AUKUS inquiry
Postal vote applications open in Victoria’s state election
CHOICE will award Australia’s shonkiest products and services
ABS data release: selected living cost indexes, September 2026; monthly household spending indicator, September 2026
Baillie Gifford Prize announced, the UK’s premier non-fiction literary award, with the winner to receive around $100,000
Thursday, 5 November
8.00am - NAB will release its full-year financial results
10.00am - Breville AGM
1.00pm - Federal Sports Minister Anika Wells will address the Queensland Media Club about how the federal government is supporting the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games - Brisbane
5.00pm - The final New Zealand election debate, TVNZ’s Q+A People’s Debate, will take place in the lead-up to the 7 November election
5.30pm - Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser delivers the Sir Leslie Melville lecture at the Australian National University - Canberra
ABS data release: public sector employment and earnings, 2025-2026 financial year; international trade in goods
Friday, 6 November
9.30am - Coles Group AGM - Melbourne
11.00am - Qantas AGM - Canberra
Nine Entertainment AGM
ABS data release: births, Australia, 2025
Saturday, 7 November
New Zealand election
Rugby league: Rugby League World Cup semi-finals begin
Opera Australia will open a world premiere season of a new production of Puccini’s La Bohème - Melbourne
Sunday, 8 November
Critics Choice Documentary Awards
*Times in AEDT
And one final fun fact…
Each week, I’ll pry a loose piece of random knowledge from the cacophony of fact that is my brain, and you can have it for free. Bore Impress your friends, bamboozle your enemies…
Well done if you spotted that our little blue headlines this week are all the names of Melbourne Cup winners. Horse racing is not my strong suit, but I do love a bit of Aussie music - and I remembered coming across a few songs written about the race in the past. So, for your listening pleasure, I present not only Slim Dusty’s famous ditty The Melbourne Cup, but also a second, less well-known tune from singer-songwriter Mike Brady. That’s the man who wrote Aussie Rules anthems Up There Cazaly and One Day in September (about the AFL Grand Final), and he stuck to what works with That Tuesday in November, which you can see him perform here before the 2000 version of the race.